Weekly ATM value and volume figures 9 January 2022.
Key observations for the week ending 9 January 2022:
- The volume of ATM transactions increased by 9% when compared to the previous week in 2022.
- The volume of ATM transactions increased by 12% when compared to the equivalent week in 2021.
- The volume of ATM transactions decreased by 40% when compared to the equivalent week in 2020.
Weekly LINK ATM transaction volumes
Last week there was a total of 24.6 million ATM transactions which represents an increase of 2 million ATM transactions over the previous week.
In 2022, there was an increase of 2.6 million transactions or 12% when compared with the equivalent week in 2021.
Since the Summer, the volume of ATM transactions had been tracking very closely to 2020. However, the paths for 2020 and 2021 diverged at the beginning of November reflecting the difference in conditions as the impact last year from the second lockdown could be seen. The divergence though was caused by the reduction in the volume of transactions in 2020 rather than any growth in 2021 with activity remaining steady as evidenced in the graph below.
For the first three weeks in December the graphs were once again merging as caution increased for 2021 in the light of the new variant as well as the re-introduction of some restrictions. Meanwhile 2020 saw an increase in volumes as many areas emerged from Lockdown 2.0 albeit with similar levels of restrictions in place to the current time.
In the last week of 2021, a seasonal decrease in the volume of transactions can be seen across all three years. In 2020 new restrictions over Christmas were introduced which were soon to be followed by the third national lockdown. The restrictions in 2021 had been less severe overall contributing to the divergence across the two years. 2022 is now pulling further ahead of 2021 due to the Lockdown restrictions last year.
With the data for the first few months of 2021 reflecting the impact of Lockdown 3.0, we expect to see 2022 continuing to be ahead of last year with the paths merging from around April or May.
Source: LINK
From Lockdown 1.0, 2.0, Tiers & 3.0 to Steps 1 to 4 out of Lockdown and now Plan B….
This graph shows the impact on ATM Transactions throughout the first year of lockdowns in 2020 and initially at the beginning of 2021 with Lockdown 3.0. Then a gradual increase from January to March can be seen followed by the spikes at the end of March and mid April as restrictions were eased at each of these stages. This was followed by increased activity over the May bank holidays with fairly consistent volumes seen since that time.
Since July with the exception of the comparison with Lockdown 2.0 in 2020, activity has been very closely matched across the two years and the floor in the volume of transactions has been maintained throughout 2021. Whilst there has been a seasonal fall in the last week, this follows a usual pattern although overall activity is also likely to have been further dampened by the overall Covid restrictions in place and cautious behaviour.
ATM Transactions are likely to increase back to the recent volumes seen and thus whilst digital payment habits were reinforced during each lockdown, there is still a consistent underlying level of cash usage by those who need to rely on cash and by those who choose to rely on cash.
Source: LINK
This next graph also shows the trajectory of ATM Transactions through each lockdown and the easing of restrictions at each stage.
In 2021 the volume and value of ATM Transactions were at firstly significantly below the equivalent months in 2020 and then increasing above the previous year as restrictions lifted compared to 2020 when restrictions were at their tightest.
Conditions were at their closest over the two years over the Summer with hospitality re-opening at the beginning of July 2020 and with businesses operating under similar restrictions to those currently in place in 2021. The convergence of the graphs shows a consistent level of ATM transactions and value across the two years under these similar conditions.
The two graphs diverged as conditions differed during November but have now converged again as similar restrictions were in place across the two years with both years showing the usual seasonal reduction in volumes at the end of the year.
Source: LINK
The overall volume and value of transactions had been very subdued throughout each of the Lockdowns compared to pre-pandemic levels as shown in the next graph below. This graph shows the pattern as restrictions began to be eased with volumes now back to c.72% of pre-pandemic levels. A similar picture is seen for transaction values – at c.85% of pre-pandemic levels.
As reported by LINK at the beginning of December, whilst out and about had been feeling more normal, ATM withdrawal values were still 24% down on pre-Covid levels and high streets were reporting 16.5% less shoppers and shopping centres 22% less – thus volumes and values were remaining subdued overall.
Source: LINK
Daily LINK ATM transaction volumes
Link has provided the following graph to show the daily transaction volumes for each Wednesday since the beginning of the year – and for the equivalent period in 2020 and 2019. ATM transactions first pulled ahead as restrictions eased earlier in 2021 – but then continued to track very close to those in 2020 – although consistently still around 35-40% lower than pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
The LINK Scheme Ltd volume of transactions for the last Wednesday shown were very similar to the previous week’s, unlike 2020 or 2019 when there were marked increases at the approach to the last weekend in the month.
The following graph shows the daily transactions compared to 2020 and 2019. The similarity to 2020 can be seen – with the increase in the volume of transactions each weekend clearly shown.
ATM Transactions over the Christmas and New Year weekends are highlighted with New Year’s Eve in particular being ahead in 2021 although still significantly below 2019.
Source: LINK
Monthly LINK ATM transaction volumes
LINK transaction volumes and values in January and February were affected by the various lockdowns across the UK with the volume of LINK transactions down 46% and values 38%, when compared to January and February 2020. Restrictions were only introduced towards the end of March 2020 and thus although an increase was seen month on month, the actual volumes in March 2021 were still 26% below that seen in March 2020.
The easing of restrictions led to increasing volumes month on month from April onwards with the monthly volumes also ahead of 2020. The gap had however closed in July reflecting the very similar conditions across the two years – in both cases both retail and hospitality venues had re-opened but with social distancing restrictions in place.
Over the summer and early Autumn ATM use settled into a similar pattern as 2020 when COVID-19 restrictions were broadly the same. Transactions for July to September were within a few percentage points of last year’s and while there appears to be some daily variation in that Monday to Wednesday is usually quieter than 2020 while the weekends are busier, overall the figures were remarkably consistent.
In November a divergence re-occurred as 2020 reflects the impact of Lockdown 2.0 with the gap closing again in December.
The total number of ATM transactions fell from 2608.4 million in 2019 to 1642.6 million in 2020 – a fall of 37%. There was a further fall of 7% in 2021 with the total number falling to 1521.7 million. However the majority of this fall was caused by the comparison with pre-pandemic levels at the beginning of 2020 – volumes fell by 40% when comparing January to March 2020 with January to March 2021. However in the remainder of 2021 from April to December the volume of transactions increased by 8% as activity increased as restrictions were lifted.
Source: LINK
Volumes and values remain significantly below pre-pandemic levels and it seems certain that there has been a fundamental change in how some consumers are using ATMs and cash. However, even with this overall reduction in usage, around £7 billion has been withdrawn each month since restrictions eased at the beginning of the Summer.
The value of ATM Transactions fell by 30% in 2020 compared with 2019. However, although the fall from 2020 to 2021 was only 3% reflecting the higher value per transaction.
Again the difference can be seen through the year with the value falling by 32% for January to March 2021 when compared to the same period in 2020 but increasing by 10% over the remainder of the year.
Source: LINK
The following graph shows how the number of ATM transactions each month have been changing over recent years (millions). Again the impact of each Lockdown in 2020 and at the beginning of 2021 can clearly be seen followed by the persistent underlying level of transactions as restrictions eased during 2020 and again in 2021.
Source: LINK
The following graph shows the volume and value of ATM Transactions since January 2020 compared to the Office for National Statistics figures on card use. The trend has been similar for each until November 2021 which shows a marked divergence as card use rose above pre-pandemic levels whereas ATM use in the same month has fallen.
Source: LINK
The graph below shows the impact of the various lockdowns in the average withdrawal amount. The average withdrawal value increased by almost £20 to over £85 during the first lockdown . This would appear to be due to non essential trips being discouraged and this led to fewer outings and thus more cash withdrawn each time. With leisure and hospitality closed there were also fewer opportunities for lower value spontaneous cash requirements.
This was reinforced during each lockdown and the average withdrawal has continued to be high throughout the remainder of 2020 with only a modest fall last Summer.
This year we had seen the average value fall once again as restrictions were lifted from March although the average value remains high compared to historic levels.
The LINK report published on 20 October included the following analysis: Before the pandemic , each adult in the UK visited a cash machine on average three times a month. However, 18 months after the Coronavirus pandemic started, it is now less than two times a month with customers now taking out on average an extra £10 each visit. The average withdrawal was £66.99 and is now £78.54.
Source: LINK
Predictions
With such a sharp drop in ATM transactions during 2020 a further significant shift from cash to digital may have been the logical expectation for 2021 but the volume of ATM transactions have remained remarkably consistent since restrictions were lifted. During November the activity for 2020 reflected the impact of the second lockdown and an increase in the year on year comparison for both volumes and values occurred – however this was caused by the fall in 2020 rather than any significant change in the activity in 2021.
For the first three weeks in December, with 2020 reflecting a lifting of restrictions in many areas and 2021 seeing a tightening due to the new variant, similar conditions were in place and activity levels converged again accordingly.
The seasonal fall in the last week of the year is in line with historic patterns and volumes are now beginning to recover as expected. With 2020 heading into a further lockdown volumes in the previous year were more subdued and thus particularly over the New Year weekend the activity in 2021 was ahead of 2020 although again still significantly below the pre-pandemic levels seen at the end of 2019.
Thus, although more may move to digital solutions over time, we can see that a considerable number are still reliant on or are choosing to rely on traditional payment methods including cash. This is reflected in the consistent underlying level of ATM cash transactions seen in 2021. We expect to see a similar pattern throughout 2022 assuming restrictions are either at the same level or less than those currently in place.