Weekly ATM value and volume figures 7 March 2021.
Key observations for the week ending 7 March:
- Last week ATM transactions decreased by 0.6 million (when compared to the previous week).
- Last week’s ATM transactions were 18.5 million less than the equivalent week in 2020.
- With the impact from Lockdown 3.0 continuing, weekly ATM use has reduced by 42% (compared to the equivalent week in 2020).
Weekly LINK ATM transaction volumes
The latest figures from LINK show the impact from the UK’s continuing digital payment habits, reinforced by more widespread Tier 4 restrictions towards the end of last year, followed by the third national lockdown at the start of 2021.
Last week saw a total of 25.6 million ATM transactions which represents a decrease of 0.6 million ATM transactions over the previous week.
However, the number of ATM transactions in the last week is following the same pattern seen in previous years, falling back slightly after the uplift in the last week of February.
In 2021, there was a reduction of 18.5 million transactions or 42% when compared with the equivalent week in 2020.
The overall number of transactions, although clearly significantly below that seen in February 2020, continues to track slightly ahead of that seen at the beginning of Lockdown 1.0. It will be interesting to see the comparison between the years once we reach the anniversary of the first lockdown.
Source: LINK
Lockdown 1.0 vs Lockdown 2.0 vs Tier restrictions and now Lockdown 3.0..
The first graph below clearly shows the steady decline in cash usage in 2018 and 2019 with a similar rate of fall at the beginning of 2020 but then followed by the steep drop at the start of the first lockdown.
After Lockdown 1.0 the weekly volume of ATM transaction rose from a low point of 20 million to circa 30 million at the point we entered Lockdown 2.0.
It then shows a further dip during Lockdown 2.0, although not as deep as that seen earlier in the year, followed by cash usage increasing again as restrictions were lifted in many places across the country. This increase was in line with seasonal trends albeit more muted than in previous years.
In the week before Christmas the volume of transactions was the closest to 2019 than had occurred since the first lockdown.
With Tier 4 restrictions in many more areas from Boxing Day, cash usage again fell sharply at the end of 2020 and at the very beginning of 2021.
Thus the impact on cash usage can be seen from the sticky digital payment habits developed over the course of this year reinforced during each national and local lockdown.
Source: LINK
This second graph, including transactions in 2021, shows the continued impact of the closure of non-essential shops and hospitality venues the discouragement of all but essential travel during Lockdown 3.0. Although the volume of ATM transactions is significantly reduced, the pattern is following that seen in previous years.
It can be seen that the volume increased throughout January and February, falling back slightly in the first week of March as shown in the previous two years. However, the volume of transactions continues to track ahead of the lowest point seen at the beginning of Lockdown 1.0.
At the moment, therefore, it looks likely that the same floor in the number of transactions seen in 2020 will continue during 2021. Thus, whilst digital payment habits have been reinforced during each lockdown, it appears that a consistent underlying level of cash usage could be maintained throughout this year.
Source: LINK
Daily LINK ATM transaction volumes
The graph below shows daily LINK volumes at the start of 2021 when compared to 2020 and 2019.
Despite all the various restrictions in the previous week, 21 December saw £238 million dispensed from Link ATMs, which was the highest for a Monday since the beginning of March.
This was also being reflected up until the end of the year in the volume of transactions, with the number each day closely following the trend seen on the equivalent day in 2020.
However since then, although the trend itself is very consistent, the impact of the wider Tier 4 restrictions and then the commencement of Lockdown 3.0 can clearly be seen in the reduced activity compared to the beginning of 2020.
As the restrictions are unlikely to be lifted significantly before the end of March, it will be interesting to see the direct daily comparison between activity in Lockdown 3.0 and under similar conditions as Lockdown 1.0 began last year.
Source: LINK
Monthly LINK ATM transaction volumes
Monthly LINK ATM transaction volumes for February have fallen back slightly to 97.5 million as the impact continues from Lockdown 3.0. Therefore although there was some recovery at the end of 2020, it is likely that the current lockdown will reinforce the digital payment habits as happened throughout each period of restriction in 2020.
That said, the volume and value of ATM transactions continue to track just ahead of that seen during the first lockdown and it may be that we could see a gradual upward trend month on month during 2021, mirroring the recovery seen during 2020 each time restrictions were lifted.
Source: LINK
Predictions
Lockdown 2.0 was not long enough to cause a further shift in behaviour but it does seem to have reinforced the habits developed during the year. After the lockdown, cash usage increased back to pre-second lockdown levels but no higher despite seasonal spikes seen in previous years.
At the end of the year, with Tier 4 restrictions resulting in the closure of non-essential stores and thus impacting traditional sales activity, we saw that these digital habits were reinforced again in the last week of 2020.
There is likely to be a further impact from Lockdown 3.0 although at the present time the volume of ATM transactions appears to have settled broadly in line with that seen in Lockdown 1.0. Indeed, as mentioned, at present with the further increase seen in the last week volumes in Lockdown 3.0 are tracking slightly ahead of Lockdown 1.0.
If digital payment habits are further reinforced, we could see ATM transaction volumes fall again during 2021 although if this occurs it is likely to be a gradual reduction rather than the sharp drop seen last year.
However, if a further significant move to digital does not occur, we could see the volume and value of ATM cash transactions gradually increase throughout this year as restrictions are lifted.
Rolling volume change (compared to 2020):
- w/e 3 January: -46%
- w/e 10 January: – 46%
- w/e 17 January: -47%
- w/e 24 January: -48%
- w/e 31 January: -46%
- w/e 7 February: -45%
- w/e 14 February: -45%
- w/e 21 February: -43%
- w/e 28 February: -41%
- w/e 7 March: -42%
Rolling value change (compared to 2020)
- w/e 3 January: -41%
- w/e 10 January: -37%
- w/e 17 January: -39%
- w/e 24 January: -40%
- w/e 31 January: -38%
- w/e 7 February: -35%
- w/e 14 February: -37%
- w/e 21 February: -34%
- w/e 28 February: -34%
- w/e 7 March: -33%
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